More than 3 million Vietnamese are at risk of internal migration due to climate change
The worst-case scenario suggests that over the next 30 years, climate change will cause significant disruption in the country's migration pattern, forcing 3.1 million Vietnamese to leave their homeland for other regions to find livelihoods.
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Vietnam is one of the countries heavily affected by climate change | Source: Groundswell Report 2021
For many people, it is very normal to be born, grow up in one place and live permanently in another place. They move to new lands for many reasons: to go to school, to work, to seek better opportunities, or simply to change. However, many others, they have no choice. They were forced to leave.
The latest report of the World Bank published in September 2021 under the name Groundswell Report (2nd time) shows that, under the worst-case scenario, it is estimated that from now to 2050, Vietnam will have about 3, 1 million people (equivalent to about 3.1% of the population) are internally displaced by climate change. This number accounts for 26% of all internal migrants, making “climate change migration” an important factor that can change the entire migration pattern and development plans in Vietnam.
In the overarching development scenario, the World Bank team predicts that around 1.9 million people will be displaced by climate change, and in the more climate-friendly scenario, this number will still be the same at a high of 1.5 million people.
Climate change migration in Vietnam is not a new discovery. A study published in 2018 by Dr Alex Chapman (University of Southampton) and Dr. Van Pham Dang Tri (Can Tho University) shows that within 10 years, the Mekong Delta region has lost 1 million out of a total population of 18 million people. 1.7 million people have left this area, while only about 700,000 people have come to settle down.
Comparatively over that period, the migration rate out of the Mekong Delta provinces is more than twice the national average, and even higher in the most vulnerable areas. "This implies that something else - perhaps climate related - is going on here" - Dr. Alex and Dr. Tri write in The Conversation.
Even a global forecast of Climate Change in 2019 also gives a controversial number when it is estimated that by 2050, about one third of Vietnam's population (ie 31 million people) will be affected by coastal flooding because a large part of land in the North and the South is submerged in sea water.
Although forecast numbers vary, most researchers believe that climate change is causing a migration crisis in Vietnam.
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